Leonel Cardenas v Mario Yanez (Sun 07 Apr 2019)
Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-7,11-8,15-13.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
26,021, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mario Yanez:
27,423, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mario Yanez to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Leonel Cardenas.
Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played
40% better than Mario Yanez in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of
31,572 and Mario Yanez at a level of
22,602. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +20% and Mario Yanez changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +4.6% and for Mario Yanez becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Rochester Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 89%, Mario Yanez: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 74%, Mario Yanez: 73%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
27,159, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Mario Yanez:
26,399, level confidence: 73%.