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Edmon Lopez Moller v Patrick Rooney (Sun 07 Apr 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 13-11,11-9,8-11,13-11.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 35,169, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 30,758, level confidence: 66%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Patrick Rooney.

Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 19% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 35,895 and Patrick Rooney at a level of 30,136. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +1.9% and Patrick Rooney changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +0.8% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 79%, Patrick Rooney: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 77%, Patrick Rooney: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 35,368, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 30,730, level confidence: 79%.