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Oscar Hill v Niall Engerer (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Niall Engerer. Result: 7-11,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 5,402, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Niall Engerer: 9,085, level confidence: 56%.
Niall Engerer to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Oscar Hill.

Niall Engerer won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Niall Engerer played 65% better than Oscar Hill in this match.

In this case, Niall Engerer played at level 8,913 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Oscar Hill is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Niall Engerer: 75%, Oscar Hill: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Niall Engerer: 74%, Oscar Hill: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 5,394, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Niall Engerer: 9,071, level confidence: 74%.