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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Gary Nitschke (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Gary Nitschke. Result: 11-13,2-11,8-11.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,100, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Gary Nitschke: 4,956, level confidence: 10%.
Gary Nitschke to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Gary Nitschke won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gary Nitschke played 67% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gary Nitschke actually played at a level of 5,819 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of 3,492. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gary Nitschke changes to +16% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gary Nitschke becomes +5.3% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ETC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gary Nitschke: 32%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gary Nitschke: 27%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,041, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Gary Nitschke: 5,212, level confidence: 27%.