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Malcolm Levy v Martynas Pempe (Wed 03 Apr 2019)

Match won by Martynas Pempe. Result: 11-8,11-8,9-11,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Malcolm Levy: 4,259, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Martynas Pempe: 3,457, level confidence: 35%.
Malcolm Levy to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Martynas Pempe.

Martynas Pempe won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martynas Pempe played 9% better than Malcolm Levy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martynas Pempe actually played at a level of 4,008 and Malcolm Levy at a level of 3,673. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martynas Pempe changes to +14% and Malcolm Levy changes to -8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martynas Pempe becomes +5.4% and for Malcolm Levy becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ETC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martynas Pempe: 59%, Malcolm Levy: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martynas Pempe: 51%, Malcolm Levy: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Malcolm Levy: 4,168, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Martynas Pempe: 3,640, level confidence: 51%.