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Jakub Pytlowany v Patrick Fitzpatrick (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Jakub Pytlowany. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-7.

Starting level for Jakub Pytlowany: 6,049, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,935, level confidence: 57%.
Jakub Pytlowany to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Jakub Pytlowany won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jakub Pytlowany played 94% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jakub Pytlowany actually played at a level of 6,797 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of 3,502. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.9% and 9.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jakub Pytlowany changes to +9.9% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jakub Pytlowany becomes +3.5% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ETC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jakub Pytlowany: 65%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jakub Pytlowany: 58%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jakub Pytlowany: 6,253, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,810, level confidence: 67%.