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Mark Chamberlain v Patrick Fitzpatrick (Fri 05 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mark Chamberlain. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Mark Chamberlain: 4,095, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,810, level confidence: 67%.
Mark Chamberlain to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Mark Chamberlain won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Chamberlain played 94% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Chamberlain actually played at a level of 5,503 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of 2,835. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Chamberlain changes to +33% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Chamberlain becomes +10.3% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -9.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ETC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Patrick Fitzpatrick is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Patrick Fitzpatrick has already dropped 7.6% since starting this event at level 4100. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Patrick Fitzpatrick's drop for this match has been limited to 3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Chamberlain: 76%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Chamberlain: 57%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Chamberlain: 4,498, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,690, level confidence: 61%.