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Oscar Hill v Bahdan Litvinau (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 5,151, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Bahdan Litvinau: 2,462, level confidence: 56%.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 109% better than Bahdan Litvinau.

Oscar Hill won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 65% better than Bahdan Litvinau in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oscar Hill was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,846 and 5,151 without affecting his level.

In this case, Oscar Hill played at level 4,252 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Oscar Hill would normally have been playing at level 4,451 (based on typical behaviour), Bahdan Litvinau played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to 0% and Bahdan Litvinau changes to +3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes 0% and for Bahdan Litvinau becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ETC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 78%, Bahdan Litvinau: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 69%, Bahdan Litvinau: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 5,143, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Bahdan Litvinau: 2,513, level confidence: 66%.