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Piotr Nowak v Leslie Callow (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Piotr Nowak. Result: 11-1,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Piotr Nowak: 3,587, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Leslie Callow: 946, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Piotr Nowak to win as he is currently playing 279% better than Leslie Callow.

Piotr Nowak won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Piotr Nowak played 200% better than Leslie Callow in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Piotr Nowak was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,636 and 3,587 without affecting his level.

In this case, Piotr Nowak played at level 2,838 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Leslie Callow is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Piotr Nowak: 76%, Leslie Callow: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Piotr Nowak: 67%, Leslie Callow: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Piotr Nowak: 3,582, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Leslie Callow: 945, level confidence: 75%.