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Matt Robilliard v Leslie Callow (Fri 05 Apr 2019)

Match won by Matt Robilliard. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-1.

Starting level for Matt Robilliard: 2,986, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Leslie Callow: 945, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Matt Robilliard to win as he is currently playing 216% better than Leslie Callow.

Matt Robilliard won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Robilliard played 560% better than Leslie Callow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Robilliard actually played at a level of 4,316 and Leslie Callow at a level of 654. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Robilliard changes to +23% and Leslie Callow changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Robilliard becomes +8.4% and for Leslie Callow becomes -9.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ETC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Leslie Callow is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Robilliard: 76%, Leslie Callow: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Robilliard: 53%, Leslie Callow: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Robilliard: 3,231, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Leslie Callow: 900, level confidence: 60%.