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Leslie Callow v Dzianis Han (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Dzianis Han. Result: 0-11,5-11,6-11.

Starting level for Leslie Callow: 902, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Dzianis Han: 2,369, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Dzianis Han to win as he is currently playing 163% better than Leslie Callow.

Dzianis Han won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dzianis Han played 200% better than Leslie Callow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dzianis Han actually played at a level of 2,532 and Leslie Callow at a level of 844. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dzianis Han changes to +3.3% and Leslie Callow changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dzianis Han becomes +2.3% and for Leslie Callow becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'ETC 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dzianis Han: 87%, Leslie Callow: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dzianis Han: 81%, Leslie Callow: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leslie Callow: 869, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Dzianis Han: 2,419, level confidence: 81%.