Allister Crossley v Steve Baker (Wed 10 Apr 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 15-12,13-15,8-15,13-15.
Starting level for
Allister Crossley:
1,775, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
1,976, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Allister Crossley.
Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
22% better than Allister Crossley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of
2,070 and Allister Crossley at a level of
1,695. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +4.3% and Allister Crossley changes to -4.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +2.8% and for Allister Crossley becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +1.1% and for Allister Crossley is -1.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 87%, Allister Crossley: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 83%, Allister Crossley: 82%.
Final level for Allister Crossley:
1,754, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
1,998, level confidence: 83%.