Carl Albright v Richard Webster (Fri 05 Apr 2019)
Match won by Carl Albright. Result: 7-15,15-11,15-8,10-15,15-12.
Starting level for
Carl Albright:
1,044, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Richard Webster:
935, level confidence: 66%.
Carl Albright to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Richard Webster.
Carl Albright won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carl Albright played
8% better than Richard Webster in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Carl Albright actually played at a level of
1,026 and Richard Webster at a level of
951. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carl Albright changes to -1.6% and Richard Webster changes to +1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carl Albright becomes -1.6% and for Richard Webster becomes +1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Carl Albright is -1.2% and for Richard Webster is +1.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carl Albright: 82%, Richard Webster: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carl Albright: 80%, Richard Webster: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Carl Albright:
1,030, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Richard Webster:
945, level confidence: 80%.