Julie Peachey v Paul Nieduszynski (Tue 09 Apr 2019)
Match won by Julie Peachey. Result: 11-6,11-8,6-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Julie Peachey:
2,351, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Paul Nieduszynski:
2,335, level confidence: 62%.
Julie Peachey to win as she is currently playing
1% better than Paul Nieduszynski.
Julie Peachey won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julie Peachey played
22% better than Paul Nieduszynski in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julie Peachey actually played at a level of
2,584 and Paul Nieduszynski at a level of
2,125. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julie Peachey changes to +9.4% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to -9.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julie Peachey becomes +4.4% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -4.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Julie Peachey is +3.3% and for Paul Nieduszynski is -3.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julie Peachey: 81%, Paul Nieduszynski: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julie Peachey: 73%, Paul Nieduszynski: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Julie Peachey:
2,426, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski:
2,254, level confidence: 72%.