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Nicolas Mueller v Benjamin Fischer (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,762, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Benjamin Fischer: 16,803, level confidence: 65%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 131% better than Benjamin Fischer.

Nicolas Mueller won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 136% better than Benjamin Fischer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of 39,182 and Benjamin Fischer at a level of 16,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +0.5% and Benjamin Fischer changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +0.2% and for Benjamin Fischer becomes -0.3%.

Given Nicolas Mueller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 67% has been applied to his level change.

Given Benjamin Fischer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller is 0% and for Benjamin Fischer is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 93%, Benjamin Fischer: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 92%, Benjamin Fischer: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,741, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Benjamin Fischer: 16,748, level confidence: 80%.