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Lukas Burkhart v Nicolas Mueller (Thu 28 Feb 2019)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 7-11,8-11,4-11.

Starting level for Lukas Burkhart: 17,291, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,972, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 120% better than Lukas Burkhart.

Nicolas Mueller won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 74% better than Lukas Burkhart in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nicolas Mueller was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,409 and 37,972 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nicolas Mueller played at level 31,151 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nicolas Mueller would normally have been playing at level 32,313 (based on typical behaviour), Lukas Burkhart played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to 0% and Lukas Burkhart changes to +2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes 0% and for Lukas Burkhart becomes +1.1%.

Given Lukas Burkhart's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller is 0% and for Lukas Burkhart is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 89%, Lukas Burkhart: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 80%, Lukas Burkhart: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lukas Burkhart: 17,372, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,915, level confidence: 80%.