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Daryl Selby v Rui Soares (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 5-11,11-7,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,475, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rui Soares: 24,765, level confidence: 63%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Rui Soares.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 20% better than Rui Soares in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 31,444, his level reduction is 6.2% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 35,600 (based on typical behaviour), Rui Soares played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -4.4% and Rui Soares changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -1.4% and for Rui Soares becomes +2.2%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 65% has been applied to his level change.

Given Rui Soares's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -0.6% and for Rui Soares is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 84%, Rui Soares: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 75%, Rui Soares: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,178, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Rui Soares: 25,006, level confidence: 70%.