Diego Gobbi v Nick Rossiter (Thu 11 Apr 2019)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
20,816, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Rossiter:
7,426, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
180% better than Nick Rossiter.
Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
230% better than Nick Rossiter in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of
22,586 and Nick Rossiter at a level of
6,844. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +5% and Nick Rossiter changes to -5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +1.7% and for Nick Rossiter becomes -2.1%.
Given Diego Gobbi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.
Given Nick Rossiter's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is +0.9% and for Nick Rossiter is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 87%, Nick Rossiter: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 80%, Nick Rossiter: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
20,973, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Nick Rossiter:
7,308, level confidence: 80%.