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Elliot Lee v Rajeeva Indiketiya (Sat 13 Apr 2019)

Match won by Elliot Lee. Result: 15-13,15-7,15-8.

Starting level for Elliot Lee: 1,260, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rajeeva Indiketiya: 787, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Elliot Lee to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Rajeeva Indiketiya.

Elliot Lee won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliot Lee played 61% better than Rajeeva Indiketiya in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliot Lee actually played at a level of 1,262 and Rajeeva Indiketiya at a level of 785. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliot Lee changes to 0% and Rajeeva Indiketiya changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliot Lee becomes +0.1% and for Rajeeva Indiketiya becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Elliot Lee is 0% and for Rajeeva Indiketiya is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliot Lee: 85%, Rajeeva Indiketiya: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliot Lee: 85%, Rajeeva Indiketiya: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliot Lee: 1,259, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Rajeeva Indiketiya: 785, level confidence: 88%.