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Jason Varrie v Diego Gobbi (Tue 09 Apr 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 9-11,3-11,4-11.

Starting level for Jason Varrie: 8,210, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 20,825, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 154% better than Jason Varrie.

Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 106% better than Jason Varrie in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,932 and 20,825 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Gobbi played at level 16,933 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Jason Varrie is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 84%, Jason Varrie: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 76%, Jason Varrie: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jason Varrie: 8,198, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 20,794, level confidence: 76%.