Joel Makin v Roshan Bharos (Wed 10 Apr 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-5.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
53,971, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Roshan Bharos:
15,263, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
254% better than Roshan Bharos.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
175% better than Roshan Bharos in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,435 and 53,971 without affecting his level.
In this case, Joel Makin played at level 41,973 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Roshan Bharos is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 89%, Roshan Bharos: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 78%, Roshan Bharos: 74%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
53,971, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Roshan Bharos:
15,263, level confidence: 74%.