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Marwan Elshorbagy v Joel Makin (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 11-4,9-11,11-6,8-11,11-8.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 47,688, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 54,525, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Marwan Elshorbagy.

Marwan Elshorbagy won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 14% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marwan Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 54,385 and Joel Makin at a level of 47,811. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to +13% and Joel Makin changes to -8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes +2.9% and for Joel Makin becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 71%, Joel Makin: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 63%, Joel Makin: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 49,061, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 53,569, level confidence: 77%.