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Leo Au v Auguste Dussourd (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 7-11,11-4,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Leo Au: 41,368, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Auguste Dussourd: 25,928, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Auguste Dussourd.

Leo Au won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 60% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 37% better than Auguste Dussourd in this match.

As Leo Au has played below his allowed range at 35,919, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Leo Au would normally have been playing at level 38,826 (based on typical behaviour), Auguste Dussourd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to -1.1% and Auguste Dussourd changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes -0.4% and for Auguste Dussourd becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 78%, Auguste Dussourd: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 73%, Auguste Dussourd: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 40,993, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Auguste Dussourd: 26,351, level confidence: 81%.