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Greg Lobban v Baptiste Masotti (Thu 11 Apr 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-5,12-10,11-8.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 37,816, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,404, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 50% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 46,092 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 30,688. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +22% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +4.5% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 85%, Baptiste Masotti: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 70%, Baptiste Masotti: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 39,328, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 36,132, level confidence: 74%.