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Diego Elias v Tsz Fung Yip (Sat 13 Apr 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-9,13-11,9-11,11-7.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 58,966, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 40,071, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Tsz Fung Yip.

Diego Elias won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 22% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.

As Diego Elias has played below his allowed range at 51,297, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 56,347 (based on typical behaviour), Tsz Fung Yip played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to -3.9% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to +6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes -1.2% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 88%, Tsz Fung Yip: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 80%, Tsz Fung Yip: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 58,153, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 40,850, level confidence: 78%.