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Patrick Fitzpatrick v David Norman (Wed 17 Apr 2019)

Match won by David Norman. Result: 7-11,11-13,2-11.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,683, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for David Norman: 7,953, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
David Norman to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

David Norman won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Norman played 75% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Norman was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,302 and 7,953 without affecting his level.

In this case, David Norman played at level 6,622 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Norman would normally have been playing at level 6,805 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Fitzpatrick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Norman changes to 0% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Norman becomes 0% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +1.2%.

Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 83% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for David Norman is 0% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Norman: 85%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Norman: 76%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 70%.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,693, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for David Norman: 7,953, level confidence: 76%.