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Hamish Thornton v Steve Baker (Tue 23 Apr 2019)

Match won by Hamish Thornton. Result: 4-11,11-2,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,765, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 1,992, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Hamish Thornton to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Steve Baker.

Hamish Thornton won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hamish Thornton played 33% better than Steve Baker in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hamish Thornton was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,012 and 3,765 without affecting his level.

As Hamish Thornton has played below his allowed range at 2,820, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Hamish Thornton would normally have been playing at level 3,367 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Baker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton changes to -4.9% and Steve Baker changes to +8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton becomes -2.5% and for Steve Baker becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Graded 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hamish Thornton: 86%, Steve Baker: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hamish Thornton: 72%, Steve Baker: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,713, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,078, level confidence: 74%.