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Ben Peach v Hamish Thornton (Fri 26 Apr 2019)

Match won by Hamish Thornton. Result: 11-9,5-11,5-11,4-11.

Starting level for Ben Peach: 2,549, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,771, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Hamish Thornton to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Ben Peach.

Hamish Thornton won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hamish Thornton played 39% better than Ben Peach in this match.

In this case, Hamish Thornton played at level 3,574 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hamish Thornton would normally have been playing at level 3,600 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Peach played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton changes to 0% and Ben Peach changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton becomes 0% and for Ben Peach becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Graded 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hamish Thornton: 91%, Ben Peach: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hamish Thornton: 88%, Ben Peach: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Peach: 2,556, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,765, level confidence: 88%.