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Calum Baker v Steve Baker (Fri 26 Apr 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 11-13,8-11,15-13,8-11.

Starting level for Calum Baker: 1,716, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,257, level confidence: 70%.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Calum Baker.

Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 21% better than Calum Baker in this match.

As Steve Baker has played below his allowed range at 2,116, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Baker would normally have been playing at level 2,202 (based on typical behaviour), Calum Baker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to -0.9% and Calum Baker changes to +2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes -0.7% and for Calum Baker becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Graded 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 84%, Calum Baker: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 80%, Calum Baker: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Calum Baker: 1,747, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,238, level confidence: 80%.