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Douglas Jacobsson v Mark Grace (Fri 26 Apr 2019)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 6-11,11-3,7-11,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,732, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Grace: 1,340, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Douglas Jacobsson to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Mark Grace.

Douglas Jacobsson won 60% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 21% better than Mark Grace in this match.

As Douglas Jacobsson has played below his allowed range at 1,639, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Douglas Jacobsson would normally have been playing at level 1,695 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Grace played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to -1% and Mark Grace changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes -0.8% and for Mark Grace becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Graded 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 89%, Mark Grace: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 86%, Mark Grace: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,716, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Mark Grace: 1,362, level confidence: 82%.