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Leslie Callow v James Leith (Fri 26 Apr 2019)

Match won by Leslie Callow. Result: 11-7,10-12,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Leslie Callow: 897, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Leith: 1,049, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
James Leith to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Leslie Callow.

Leslie Callow won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leslie Callow played 34% better than James Leith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leslie Callow actually played at a level of 1,125 and James Leith at a level of 837. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leslie Callow changes to +23% and James Leith changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leslie Callow becomes +12.7% and for James Leith becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Graded 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Leslie Callow is limited to +10% and James Leith is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leslie Callow: 88%, James Leith: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leslie Callow: 71%, James Leith: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leslie Callow: 985, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for James Leith: 998, level confidence: 71%.