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Amanda Warren v Liam Townsend (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Amanda Warren. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Amanda Warren: 1,858, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Liam Townsend: 977, level confidence: 34%.
Amanda Warren to win as she is currently playing 90% better than Liam Townsend.

Amanda Warren won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Amanda Warren played 74% better than Liam Townsend in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Amanda Warren was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 1,439 and 1,858 without affecting her level.

In this case, Amanda Warren played at level 1,697 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Liam Townsend is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Amanda Warren: 72%, Liam Townsend: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Amanda Warren: 69%, Liam Townsend: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Amanda Warren: 1,855, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Liam Townsend: 976, level confidence: 55%.