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Danny Finn v Rob Ready (Sat 27 Apr 2019)

Match won by Rob Ready. Result: 13-15,8-15,9-15.

Starting level for Danny Finn: 499, level confidence: 14%.
Starting level for Rob Ready: 687, level confidence: 41%.
Rob Ready to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Danny Finn.

Rob Ready won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Ready played 52% better than Danny Finn in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Ready actually played at a level of 721 and Danny Finn at a level of 475. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Ready changes to +1.5% and Danny Finn changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Ready becomes +1.5% and for Danny Finn becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Rob Ready is +1.1% and for Danny Finn is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Ready: 64%, Danny Finn: 38%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Ready: 61%, Danny Finn: 36%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Danny Finn: 485, level confidence: 36%.
Final level for Rob Ready: 694, level confidence: 61%.