Steve Baker v Douglas Jacobsson (Mon 29 Apr 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 11-5,11-4,7-11,9-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,238, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Douglas Jacobsson:
1,711, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Douglas Jacobsson.
Steve Baker won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
14% better than Douglas Jacobsson in this match.
As Steve Baker has played below his allowed range at 2,025, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Baker would normally have been playing at level 2,186 (based on typical behaviour), Douglas Jacobsson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 5.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to -3.4% and Douglas Jacobsson changes to +4.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes -2.4% and for Douglas Jacobsson becomes +3.1%.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.
Given Douglas Jacobsson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is -0.7% and for Douglas Jacobsson is +1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 89%, Douglas Jacobsson: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 83%, Douglas Jacobsson: 86%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,223, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Douglas Jacobsson:
1,728, level confidence: 86%.