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Greg Lobban v Mohamed Reda (Sun 21 Apr 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 40,325, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Reda: 31,895, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Mohamed Reda.

Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 22% better than Mohamed Reda in this match.

In this case, Greg Lobban played at level 39,320 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 39,600 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Reda played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to 0% and Mohamed Reda changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes 0% and for Mohamed Reda becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 84%, Mohamed Reda: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 83%, Mohamed Reda: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 40,150, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mohamed Reda: 32,100, level confidence: 84%.