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Alan Clyne v Tsz Fung Yip (Sun 21 Apr 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 36,741, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 40,588, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Alan Clyne.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 83% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 52,287 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of 28,520. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +40% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +7.4% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alan Clyne is limited to +5.4% and Tsz Fung Yip is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 84%, Tsz Fung Yip: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 59%, Tsz Fung Yip: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 38,712, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,640, level confidence: 61%.