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Omar Mosaad v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Mon 22 Apr 2019)

Match won by Omar Mosaad. Result: 3-11,12-10,11-6,4-11,11-2.

Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 40,578, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 35,540, level confidence: 61%.
Omar Mosaad to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Omar Mosaad won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Mosaad played 8% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Omar Mosaad actually played at a level of 39,488 and Iker Pajares Bernabeu at a level of 36,521. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad changes to -2.5% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad becomes -0.9% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Mosaad: 80%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Mosaad: 78%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Omar Mosaad: 40,125, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 35,952, level confidence: 76%.