SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Nicolas Mueller v Alan Clyne (Mon 22 Apr 2019)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 9-11,12-10,11-7,7-11,11-6.

Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 41,134, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 39,313, level confidence: 59%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Alan Clyne.

Nicolas Mueller won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 10% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of 42,229 and Alan Clyne at a level of 38,293. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +2.1% and Alan Clyne changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +0.8% and for Alan Clyne becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 86%, Alan Clyne: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 84%, Alan Clyne: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 41,380, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 39,020, level confidence: 75%.