Cesar Salazar v Nafizwan Adnan (Mon 22 Apr 2019)
Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 13-11,3-11,11-9,11-4.
Starting level for
Cesar Salazar:
40,033, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nafizwan Adnan:
35,159, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Nafizwan Adnan.
Cesar Salazar won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played
20% better than Nafizwan Adnan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of
41,026 and Nafizwan Adnan at a level of
34,308. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +2.3% and Nafizwan Adnan changes to -2.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +0.9% and for Nafizwan Adnan becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 85%, Nafizwan Adnan: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 83%, Nafizwan Adnan: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Cesar Salazar:
40,217, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nafizwan Adnan:
35,006, level confidence: 87%.