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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Max Lee (Mon 22 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 13-11,3-11,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,523, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Max Lee: 42,363, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Max Lee.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 23% better than Max Lee in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 54,990, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 61,207 (based on typical behaviour), Max Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -4.5% and Max Lee changes to +6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1.3% and for Max Lee becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 89%, Max Lee: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 80%, Max Lee: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 63,558, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Max Lee: 43,167, level confidence: 85%.