Ali Farag v Paul Coll (Wed 24 Apr 2019)
Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Ali Farag:
73,009, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Coll:
68,449, level confidence: 67%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Paul Coll.
Ali Farag won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played
36% better than Paul Coll in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of
82,498 and Paul Coll at a level of
60,576. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +10.4% and Paul Coll changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +2.3% and for Paul Coll becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 90%, Paul Coll: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 79%, Paul Coll: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ali Farag:
74,469, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Paul Coll:
66,917, level confidence: 72%.