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Rui Soares v Chris Simpson (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 4-11,11-6,7-11,4-11.

Starting level for Rui Soares: 24,324, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,470, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Rui Soares.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 33% better than Rui Soares in this match.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 32,975, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 35,455 (based on typical behaviour), Rui Soares played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -1.3% and Rui Soares changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -0.5% and for Rui Soares becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'English National Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 92%, Rui Soares: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 86%, Rui Soares: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rui Soares: 24,738, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,068, level confidence: 86%.