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Malcolm Levy v Mike Hayler (Mon 29 Apr 2019)

Match won by Malcolm Levy. Result: 11-6,11-0,11-4.

Starting level for Malcolm Levy: 4,179, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Mike Hayler: 2,672, level confidence: 61%.
Malcolm Levy to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Mike Hayler.

Malcolm Levy won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm Levy played 230% better than Mike Hayler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Malcolm Levy actually played at a level of 6,070 and Mike Hayler at a level of 1,839. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy changes to +35% and Mike Hayler changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy becomes +10.6% and for Mike Hayler becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man IOMSRA Finals League 2018-2019' so the adjustment for Malcolm Levy is +8% and for Mike Hayler is -8.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Hayler is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm Levy: 76%, Mike Hayler: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm Levy: 52%, Mike Hayler: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Malcolm Levy: 4,506, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Mike Hayler: 2,475, level confidence: 54%.