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Allister Crossley v Steve Baker (Wed 01 May 2019)

Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 15-13,14-15,8-15,15-8,15-12.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,752, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,227, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Allister Crossley.

Allister Crossley won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played 9% better than Steve Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of 2,063 and Steve Baker at a level of 1,891. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +16% and Steve Baker changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +7.3% and for Steve Baker becomes -6.2%.

Given Allister Crossley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +2.3% and for Steve Baker is -1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 87%, Steve Baker: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 74%, Steve Baker: 77%.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,792, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,190, level confidence: 77%.