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Michael Aley v Elliot Selby (Tue 30 Apr 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 11-5,10-12,10-12,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,755, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliot Selby: 8,285, level confidence: 43%.
Elliot Selby to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Michael Aley.

Michael Aley won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 12% better than Elliot Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Aley actually played at a level of 8,481 and Elliot Selby at a level of 7,576. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to +5.4% and Elliot Selby changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes +2.2% and for Elliot Selby becomes -3.1%.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Given Elliot Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Essex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is +1.2% and for Elliot Selby is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 85%, Elliot Selby: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 77%, Elliot Selby: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Aley: 7,836, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Elliot Selby: 8,142, level confidence: 60%.