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Magnus Lamprecht v Ian Sheard (Tue 30 Apr 2019)

Match won by Magnus Lamprecht. Result: 9-15,15-7,13-15,15-12,15-9.

Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,084, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ian Sheard: 935, level confidence: 62%.
Magnus Lamprecht to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Ian Sheard.

Magnus Lamprecht won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Magnus Lamprecht played 11% better than Ian Sheard in this match.

As Magnus Lamprecht has played below his allowed range at 1,056, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Magnus Lamprecht would normally have been playing at level 1,078 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Sheard played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht changes to -1% and Ian Sheard changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht becomes -1% and for Ian Sheard becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht is -0.9% and for Ian Sheard is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Magnus Lamprecht: 89%, Ian Sheard: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Magnus Lamprecht: 88%, Ian Sheard: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,073, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Ian Sheard: 947, level confidence: 77%.