Mark Grace v Sachet Baniya (Tue 30 Apr 2019)
Match won by Mark Grace. Result: 15-5,15-7,15-6.
Starting level for
Mark Grace:
1,360, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Sachet Baniya:
495, level confidence: 56%.
Mark Grace to win as he is currently playing
175% better than Sachet Baniya.
Mark Grace won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Grace played
150% better than Sachet Baniya in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Grace was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 817 and 1,360 without affecting his level.
In this case, Mark Grace played at level 1,238 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Sachet Baniya is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Grace: 90%, Sachet Baniya: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Grace: 86%, Sachet Baniya: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Grace:
1,358, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Sachet Baniya:
494, level confidence: 71%.