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Andy Dixon v Magnus Lamprecht (Thu 02 May 2019)

Match won by Magnus Lamprecht. Result: 5-15,6-15,8-15.

Starting level for Andy Dixon: 777, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,074, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Magnus Lamprecht to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Andy Dixon.

Magnus Lamprecht won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Magnus Lamprecht played 137% better than Andy Dixon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Magnus Lamprecht actually played at a level of 1,406 and Andy Dixon at a level of 594. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht changes to +22% and Andy Dixon changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht becomes +11.5% and for Andy Dixon becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht is +10.4% and for Andy Dixon is -12%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy Dixon is limited to -9.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Magnus Lamprecht: 93%, Andy Dixon: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Magnus Lamprecht: 71%, Andy Dixon: 65%.

A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Dixon: 732, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,180, level confidence: 71%.