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Mark Webster-Smith v Ian Barnes (Fri 03 May 2019)

Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 15-4,15-5,15-5.

Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,185, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Ian Barnes: 884, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing 147% better than Ian Barnes.

Mark Webster-Smith won all of the games and 76% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 221% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played 221% better than Ian Barnes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Webster-Smith actually played at a level of 2,492 and Ian Barnes at a level of 775. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.7% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to +8.7% and Ian Barnes changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes +4.3% and for Ian Barnes becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith is +3.9% and for Ian Barnes is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 84%, Ian Barnes: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 73%, Ian Barnes: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,266, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Ian Barnes: 841, level confidence: 76%.