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Liam Davies v Mark Harrop (Fri 03 May 2019)

Match won by Liam Davies. Result: 13-15,15-11,15-11,8-15,15-12.

Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,828, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Mark Harrop: 677, level confidence: 48%.
Liam Davies to win as he is currently playing 170% better than Mark Harrop.

Liam Davies won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Davies played 8% better than Mark Harrop in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Liam Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,114 and 1,828 without affecting his level.

As Liam Davies has played below his allowed range at 904, his level reduction is 23% before damping. On the assumption that Liam Davies would normally have been playing at level 1,444 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Harrop played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 40%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Davies changes to -10.1% and Mark Harrop changes to +23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Davies becomes -5.1% and for Mark Harrop becomes +13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Isle of Man BC SRA Cup 2019' so the adjustment for Liam Davies is -4.6% and for Mark Harrop is +11%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Harrop is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Davies: 79%, Mark Harrop: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Davies: 50%, Mark Harrop: 44%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Davies: 1,785, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Mark Harrop: 744, level confidence: 44%.